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Объяснение:
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Государственное стимулирование рождаемости и предложения экспертов облегчить жизнь семей с детьми вряд ли смогут переломить демографические тенденции до начала 2030-х гг. Избежать депопуляции едва ли возможно без мигрантов, но важен качественный отбор уроженцев сопредельных стран по их образованию, квалификации и возрасту.
Комитет гражданских инициатив во вторник обсудил Национальный доклад по демографии, подготовленный учеными Института социально-политических исследований РАН во главе с членом-корреспондентом РАН Сергеем Рязанцевым, в котором проанализированы тенденции изменения численности населения России и предложены меры предотвратить его снижение.
Авторы отмечают, что естественная убыль населения страны вызвана объективными причинами, прежде всего снижением численности женщин детородного возраста, а эффект недавних пронаталистских мер (ежемесячные пособия на первенца) проявится не сразу. Доклад косвенно подтверждает, что объявленная Владимиром Путиным цель достичь естественного прироста населения к 2024 г. недостижима, но возможно сократить его убыль.
Семейно-пенсионное послание
Ученые предлагают дополнительные меры: списывать часть ипотечного кредита семьям при рождении второго ребенка и полностью – третьего. Но они уже отчасти реализованы: закон о субсидировании государством долга по ипотеке (не более 450 000 руб.) при рождении третьего ребенка подписан президентом в июле 2019 г., размер списания при рождении второго зависит от региона. В докладе также предложено платить увеличенное (40% зарплаты) пособие матерям детей с 1,5 до 3 лет, если они не посещают ясли или детсад; принять законы, позволяющие молодым матерям работать удаленно. Еще одна небанальная идея – перевод студентов с платного обучения на бюджетное при рождении ребенка.
По мнению директора Института демографии ВШЭ Анатолия Вишневского, эти меры могут облегчить жизнь семей с детьми, но вряд ли поднимут рождаемость: изменить модель современной городской семьи с двумя, максимум тремя детьми не смогли страны и с более развитой системой соцподдержки. До начала 2030-х гг., когда детородного возраста достигнет многочисленное поколение, родившееся в конце 2000-х – середине 2010-х гг., естественный прирост маловероятен.
Ранее по теме:
Почему предвыборные пособия «на первенца» не решат демографической проблемы
Авторы доклада отмечают, что ресурс соотечественников, которые восполнить убыль населения и при этом не изменить его национальную структуру, ограничен: такой миграционный потенциал не превышает 4 млн человек, которых к тому же непросто будет убедить переехать. Более перспективной представляется идея восполнить естественную убыль за счет трудовой миграции – ставка не на временных гастарбайтеров, а на стимулирование переезда молодых, квалифицированных и знающих русский язык жителей стран бывшего СССР на постоянное жительство в Россию. Однако для ее реализации потребуется продуманная система отбора кандидатов на переезд и интеграции жителей стран СНГ и их детей на новом месте, которую еще предстоит разработать.